Despite PSG coasting to another underwhelming title, Ligue 1 was arguably more competitive than ever last season. Although a title race never really emerged, Lens finished just one point behind Paris, while Igor Tudor’s Marseille posted their best 18-game opening to a season this century. Monaco and Lyon, despite considerable talent, couldn’t even make it to Europe. Lille, however, quietly stood out as an outlier.
Understat’s Ligue 1 expected points table places Les Dogues at the top. Expected points are derived through thousands of simulations of games using expected goals data to determine the average number of points a team might have expected to win from each match. From their 38 league games, LOSC could have expected an average of 75.09 points. This puts Paulo Fonseca’s side ahead of PSG (74.01), Marseille (70.97), and Lens (69.41).
The model suggests that Lille underperformed by around eight points, while the rest of the top four overperformed – PSG by 10.99 points and Lens by 14.59. Only strugglers Strasbourg (+12.19) and Angers (+16.04) finished worse off than LOSC, who won the xG battle in 33 out of their 38 league games last season according to Understat. Strikingly, despite finishing tenth in the previous season, Lille’s xPTS tally of 66.82 was only one expected point less than their title-winning side of 20/21.
The suggested discrepancy between points and performances supports the feeling that Lille often impressed last season after an initial lack of balance and cohesion under Fonseca, which included a 7-1 thrashing by PSG. Striker Jonathan David maintained his form throughout the season, scoring 24 goals, while several younger players improved, such as Angel Gomes, who enjoyed a deeper midfield role. Experienced players like Jonathan Bamba and Remy Cabella posted their best campaigns for some time.
Lille’s attack ranked second for shots on target, key passes, and passes into the final third, while conceding the fewest in all three categories in Ligue 1, according to FBRef. However, despite conceding the lowest xG against in France, only the relegated teams had a worse shots-on-target-to-goals-against ratio. Despite having the second-highest xG tally, Lille only produced the league’s sixth-most goals, with the most notable underperformance of -6.4 from only 49 shots throughout the season.
As Lille fans would agree, errors at both ends have been a problem – giving up major chances too often and missing simple ones themselves. Remy Cabella, despite an excellent season creatively, was a leading offender, wasting five major close-range chances, all in games that Lille failed to win. Meanwhile, stuttering centre-back Tiago Djalo and young goalkeeper Chevalier (who underlined his significant potential regardless) both made multiple major errors that led to goals and affected results.
Although frustrating, such issues offer positives for Fonseca. A midfield of Cabella, Gomes, underrated veteran Benjamin Andre, and the quickly improving dynamo Carlos Baleba, who is only 18 years old, is controlling Ligue 1 games and creating chances. While replacing departing captain Jose Fonte will be a challenge, Lille is proving to be well-organized defensively too, errors aside.
Successful summer signings will be crucial for the team’s future. Lille will need to replace David’s 24 goals, Fonte’s leadership, and Bamba’s output (13 goals and assists). However, the structure, style, and a strong core of players remain, offering a realistic chance of matching their impressive underlying numbers. With PSG in transition, Lens venturing into the Champions League with limited experience and Marseille changing coaches again, a vaguely similar overperformance seen in the title-winning season of 20/21 could propel Fonseca and Lille to challenge once more.
Adam White | GFFN
