The group stages of the 2022 World Cup have officially concluded.
Qatar 2022 might have been a slow burner at first, but it’s fair to say that the concluding matches of each group were pure entertainment with thrills, spills and shocks aplenty leaving football fans on the edge of their seats.
Belgium, Germany and Uruguay all stumbled at the first hurdle as they board flights home, while Morocco, South Korea and Australia shocked the world to make surprise appearances in the last 16.
Even nations like France and Brazil who qualified for the knockout rounds at a canter were still dealt an unexpected reality check as they were made to limp over the line courtesy of defeats to Tunisia and Cameroon respectively.
All in all, there was plenty of excitement to get supporters buzzing about the business end of the tournament where, at the expense of stating the obvious, just one defeat buys you a ticket home.
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And there’s no rest for the wicked when it comes to the World Cup because just as soon as the group stages have wrapped up, the first round of 16 matches are ready to get underway.
However, before we start seeing the World Cup cohort halved with each passing round, let’s take stock of the 16 teams who are still standing at the time of writing and what their chances of going all the way truly are.
Qatar 2022: The ultimate World Cup quiz
Who are favourites to win the World Cup?
To do so, we’ve turned to the data gurus over at FiveThirtyEight, who use a complex algorithm – which you can read more about here – to calculate the percentage likelihood of each country lifting the famous trophy above their head at the Lusail Iconic Stadium on December 18.
Factoring in everything from the nation’s defensive and offensive strength to the quality of the squad based on club performances, it truly is one of the most thorough forecasting tools for how the next two weeks are likely to play out.
So, aren’t you curious to find out how your nation is shaping up and which of the 16 countries is the darling of the data? Well, wonder no more by checking out how every team is ranked by their percentage chance of lifting the trophy down below:
16. Australia: <1%
15. Poland: <1%
14. South Korea: 1%
13. United States of America – 1%
12. Morocco – 1%
11. Senegal – 2%
10. Japan – 2%
9. Switzerland – 2%
8. Croatia – 3%
7. Netherlands – 6%
6. Portugal – 7%
5. England – 9%
4. France – 12%
3. Argentina – 13%
2. Spain – 14%
- Brazil – 26%
What are England’s chances of winning the World Cup?
Well, well, well: there’s a 9% chance of football coming home then!
Considering that England have been right up there with the favourites in the eyes of the bookmakers over the last few months, it’s perhaps something of a sobering track change to see the Three Lions not quite so fancied for glory.
Don’t get it twisted, fifth-favourite is nothing to be sniffed at though, especially when it seems highly likely that Gareth Southgate’s men are set for a quarter-final clash with champions France.
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Speaking of which, Les Bleus are only given a 12% chance of joining 1938 Italy and 1962 Brazil in the exclusive club of men’s national teams to have defended a World Cup trophy.
However, perhaps the most interesting result to come from the data is Spain, who only won once during the group stages, placing as the second-most fancied side behinds perhaps the arguably predictable sight of favourites Brazil being, well, favourites.
It’s even more surprising given that Spain’s most likely route to glory in Qatar would see them having to overcome Morocco, Portugal, France and Brazil, which is hardly easy going.
Elsewhere, Cristiano Ronaldo‘s chances of adding a World Cup trophy to his collection seem far, far slimmer than those of Lionel Messi, while Croatia are given a glimmer of hope of going one better than in 2018 and Japan sneak into the top 10 on the back of their group stage heroics.
However, as we all know, World Cups aren’t won on statistics and if the last few weeks have taught us anything, it’s that we can expect plenty of shocks and upsets before we get to December 18.
You can find all of the latest football news and rumours right here.
