Tottenham’s Son Heung-min became the 25th Premier League player to scoop the competition’s Golden Boot last weekend – with his 23 goals in the 2021/22 campaign enough to see him share the prize with Liverpool’s Mo Salah.
His strike partner Harry Kane finished the season with just six goals less, but the two men’s ‘expected goals’ couldn’t be any further apart.
Essentially, the metric allows us to track which players have scored more goals than they should have done over the course of the season based on the quality of the chances they’ve had.
According to statistics provided by the guys over at FBref, Son outperformed his expected non-penalty return by an impressive 6.6 goals – the second-best figures in the whole competition.
Kane, meanwhile, was more than four goals short of his predicted tally.
Although his actual haul of 17 goals was still enough to see Kane finish fourth in the Premier League’s goalscoring charts, the England captain will naturally be disappointed by his conversion rate.
The 2021/22 Premier League quiz of the season
Below, we’ve taken a look at the 10 worst offenders for squandering golden opportunities in the English top-flight in 2021/22.
To prevent the stats from being unfairly skewed, we’ve looked at each player’s ratio excluding penalty-kicks.
Let’s now find out who the competition’s worst finishers were across the campaign.
The ‘worst strikers’ of the 2021/22 Premier League season as ranked by stats
10. Gabriel Jesus (Manchester City)
Non-penalty G-xG: -2.4
City have finally solved their striker conundrum with the addition of Erling Haaland from next season. That signing will likely see Jesus moving away from the Etihad. In a side packed with so much talent, the fact the Brazilian hasn’t been able to at least match his expected goals ratio doesn’t bode well for his future at the elite level.
9. Jakub Moder (Brighton)
Non-penalty G-xG: -2.4
Moder has been plying his trade in the Premier League for two seasons now and has yet to open his account. The stats say he should have at least two to his credit.
8. Mathias Jensen (Brentford)
Non-penalty G-xG: -2.5
The Bees enjoyed a magnificent first season in the Premier League. However, midfielder Jensen didn’t contribute a single one of their 48 top-flight goals.
7. Jay Rodriguez (Burnley)
Non-penalty G-xG: -2.7
The level of opposition faced by Clarets will drop next season as they look to secure promotion from the Championship. Even after dropping down a division, though, Burnley will still require a far greater contribution from the goal-shy Rodriguez.
6. Joao Cancelo (Manchester City)
Non-penalty G-xG: -3.1
Yes, City are so dominant in most of their matches that even their members of their backline are frequently taking pops at goal. In fact, the nature of Pep Guardiola’s playing system has meant that Cancelo has actually had more shots in the league than any other member of the Spaniard’s squad.
Given that City ended up landing their fourth title in five years, we can’t see Pep being overly bothered by the three (or so) goals that the stats say Cancelo should have scored but didn’t.
5. Joshua King (Watford)
Non-penalty G-xG: -3.2
The Hornets probably wouldn’t have stayed up anyway, but a few more goals from their inconsistent frontman would certainly have helped their cause.
4. Alexandre Lacazette (Arsenal)
Non-penalty G-xG: -3.6
When the Gunners offloaded Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang to Barcelona in January, Lacazette was tipped by some to pick up the slack in terms of goalscoring at the Emirates. It wasn’t to be.
3. Timo Werner (Chelsea)
Non-penalty G-xG: -3.6
Poor Timo gets a fair amount of flak for his lack of goals, but the stats suggest that it might be deserved.
2. Harry Kane (Tottenham)
Non-penalty G-xG: -4.1
Having had 131 shots across the campaign, Kane should probably have at least broken the 20 goal-mark. Had he done so, Kane would have surpassed Cristiano Ronaldo for third-place in terms of the competition’s top marksmen.
1. Bryan Mbeumo (Brentford)
Non-penalty G-xG: -6.0
After somehow managing to hit the woodwork on no less than seven occasions, Mbeumo was always destined to have a rough ride in the expected goals stakes.
Should Arsenal part ways with Arteta? (Via The Football Terrace)
